May the Odds Be Ever In Your Favor

As Simone Biles rocked the world at the World Championships in Antwerp Belgium, everyone began thinking about the next 3 years before the Olympic Games.  Will she burn out like many before her?  Will she stand the test of time that the next 3 years will bring?  As I love to look at numbers and the past, I decided to look at previous years and see what 16 year old World Medalists in the year after the Olympics went on to the next Olympic Games.

2005 World Championships

	Gold	Silver	Bronze
All Around	Chellsie Memmel	Nastia Liukin	Monette Russo
Vault	Cheng Fei	Oksana Chusovitina	Alicia Sacramone
Bars	Nastia Liukin	Chellsie Memmel	Beth Tweddle
Beam	Nastia Liukin	Chellsie Memmel	Catalina Ponor
Floor	Alicia Sacramone	Nastia Liukin	Suzanne Harme

As you can see, the U.S. won big at the 2005 World Championships in Melbourne, Australia.  The Championships were dominated by mostly veterans, with the older gymnasts winning 80% of the medals, Nastia Liukin being the only fresh senior to win medals, taking home 20% of the medals that year.  Liukin, as you know, went on to be the most successful member of the US team for the 2008 Olympics, winning The AA Gold, Team, Bars and Beam Silvers, and Floor Bronze, medaling in every event final she participated in winning 91% of the medals she tried to win in the following 2 World Championships and Olympic Games, which makes the baby success rate 100% for these Championships.

2009 World Championships

	Gold	Silver	Bronze
All Around	Bridget Sloan	Rebecca Bross	Koko Tsurumi
Vault	Kayla Williams	Ariella Kaeslin	Youna Dufronet
Bars	He Kexin	Koko Tsurumi	Ana Porgras Rebecca Bross
Beam	Deng Linlin	Lauren Mitchell	Ivana Hong
Floor	Beth Tweddle	Lauren Mitchell	Sui Lu

At the 2009 World Championships in London, England, you can see that the medalists were a little more spread out and more diverse than the 2005 World Championships, with the older gymnasts winning 69% of the medals.  

Of the 16 year olds,  only 1 gymnasts went on to become an Olympian in 2012, Youna Dufournet who did not qualify for finals.  Kayla Williams, the Vault World Champion dropped down to level 10 shortly after and is currently enjoying a successful collegiate career at the University of Alabama.  Rebecca Bross, the AA Silver and Bar Bronze medalists, was infamously injured in 2011, and was not named to the 2012 Olympic Team, andAna Porgras retired in February 2012.

So, the average success rate for the 16 year old World Medalists over the past 2 quads were, 23%, however, when the gymnast was as successful as Simone Biles was in 2013, the success rate goes down to 20%.  Simone Biles, may the odds be ever in your favor.