Sunday, August 16, 2015

Shaping the 2015 US World Championship's Team

After watching the 2015 P&G US National Championships, the World's team puzzle is looking more confusing than ever.  Some top players faltered, others shinned brighter than expected, and all in all, the pieces are looking more jumbled than before.  I've seen so many different possible teams roaming around the gymternet, and I've taken the most common ones and compared them to each other using averages from this year (calculated here from TheGymter.net).  Just a disclaimer that all lineups are based on numbers and averages ONLY.  The results are pretty interesting.

Team A
Simone Biles
Gabby Douglas
Bailie Key
Maggie Nichols
Aly Raisman
Kyla Ross

Before Championships, this was by far the most common team on the gymternet.  Almost everyone agreed this was the team going to Glasgow in October, these were the only girls USAGym brought out for interviews after podium training!  This is a really strong team, even with minimal use of sixth member Kyla Ross!

I would imagine the lineups would look like this (qualifying in italics);
Vault- Key/Douglas/Raisman/Nichols/Biles                                         47.060
Bars- Raisman/Nichols/Key/Biles/Douglas                                           45.360
Beam- Key/Douglas/Ross/Raisman/Biles                                              44.587
Floor- Nichols/Douglas/Key/Raisman/Biles                                          45.628
Total                                                                                                      182.635

The only problem with this lineup, as strong as it is, is that only Douglas and Biles are doing All Around.  I could that second All Around spot going to anyone else on this team, depending on who looks the best in training and at Selection Camp.  The beam weakness really jumps out at me, not that 44.587 is a bad score, but when you're consistently averaging over a 15 on every other event (including bars), you notice when you're not.

Team B
Simone Biles
Gabby Douglas
Bailie Key
Madison Kocian
Maggie Nichols
Aly Raisman

After Kyla Ross had a rough P&G Championships, and failed to hit a bar routine through either of the US domestic meets this summer, this has become the more common term configuration.  Many wrote off Kocian due to ankle/foot injuries earlier this year, which took her out of contention for the Jesolo Trophy in March.  However, Kocian proved many wrong by being so consistent on bars this summer, winning the 2015 US Bar title by .25 over Ashton Locklear.

Vault- Key/Douglas/Raisman/Nichols/Biles                                          47.060
Bars- Nichols/Biles/Key/Douglas/Kocian                                              45.837
Beam- Key/Nichols/Douglas/Raisman/Biles                                          44.462
Floor- Nichols/Douglas/Key/Raisman/Biles                                          45.628
Total                                                                                                      182.987

The only place the Kocian helps is on bars, and in this scenario, Nichols isn't used in the team final.  This team is about .35 better than Team A, as the hole created by Kyla Ross not being used on beam is filled by Kocian's huge 15.567 average on bars.

Team C
Simone Biles
Gabby Douglas
Bailie Key
Maggie Nichols
Aly Raisman
MyKayla Skinner

I've seen this team floating around because of Skinner's potential for a vault medal.  It is true that medals are important for the success/ support of the sport in the US, Marta has said she won't take someone for an individual over the team.

Vault- Key/Skinner/Raisman/Nichols/Biles                                            47.060
Bars- Raisman/Nichols/Key/Biles/Douglas                                            45.360
Beam- Key/Nichols/Douglas/Raisman/Biles                                           44.462
Floor- Skinner/Nichols/Key/Raisman/Biles                                            45.628
Total                                                                                                       182.510

This team is about a tenth weaker than Team A, and about half a point weaker than Team B.  While Skinner adds a potential medal on vault, she doesn't even contribute to the team on her strongest events!  I think this is the least likely team of all the possibilities.

Team D
Simone Biles
Gabby Douglas
Bailie Key
Magge Nichols
Aly Raisman

This team won't happen because it is only five members.  I just threw this in because, regardless of the sixth member, the core of the team will contribute mostly in Glasgow.  I included this because in reality, the sixth member is just an added bonus over the other teams competing against the United States.

Vault- Key/Douglas/Raisman/Nichols/Biles                                           47.060
Bars- Raisman/Nichols/Key/Biles/Douglas                                            45.360
Beam- Key/Nichols/Douglas/Raisman/Biles                                           44.462
Floor- DouglasNichols/Key/Raisman/Biles                                            45.628
Total                                                                                                       182.510

This team scores exactly as Team C because Skinner wasn't used in the final in Team C.  Just putting it out there, but this team would've won last year in Nanning.  Just goes to show, that Team USA is looking stronger than ever with 2-Time Defending World All Around Champion Simone Biles, the return of Olympic Champions Aly Raisman and Gabby Douglas, the return/ improvement of Maggie Nichols, and the 16th birthday of Bailie Key.  It doesn't really matter who is the sixth member at this point, because Team USA is looking strong enough with 5 girls, which is very promising for next summer.

8 comments:

  1. With Team B, Nichols is used in the team final! She would be used on vault!

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  2. 5 people compete in qualifications for each event (only 4 scores count for the team total), so more people would/could still do AA in any of these scenarios...

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    Replies
    1. Yea, I was thinking of the Olympics for some reason, long day!

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  3. Biles, Kocian, Nichols, Raisman, Ross, Key total of 183.102...but no Gabby on that team!

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    Replies
    1. but that's only 5 people! Put Gabby on that team and it gets stronger (see team B)

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    2. It is 6! Simone, Madison, Maggie, Aly, Kyla, Bailie.
      Bailie gives a higher total than Gabby using these numbers. A total of 183.102

      Delete
  4. For team C, I would think about having Skinner do her cheng over aly's amanar in TF. Skinner cheng scored significantly better internationally than domestically. Might be able to get another 0.4 or so there. If I were mykayla I would train day and night to get the amanar back for worlds.

    ReplyDelete